Myanmar Jadeite Rough Supply Continues to Tighten, High-End Market Prices Reach New Peaks
【Yangon/Shenzhen】— In March 2024, the global jadeite rough market continued to exhibit a tense supply-demand imbalance, particularly for high-quality jadeite rough originating from Myanmar. According to firsthand information obtained by our reporter from major jadeite distribution centers and rough traders, the overall price of jadeite rough showed an upward trend this month. Among them, top-tier qualities such as 'ice-kind' (冰种) and 'glass-kind' (玻璃种) saw particularly significant increases, with some premium rough even recording double-digit percentage growth, while prices for mid-to-low-end varieties remained relatively stable.
Supply Side: Dual Pressures from Geopolitics and Mining Restrictions
Myanmar, as the sole origin for over 90% of high-quality jadeite globally, faces a complex internal political situation and increasingly stringent mining policies, which are the fundamental reasons for the continuous tightening of rough supply. Since 2021, the Myanmar government has intensified its control over jadeite mining areas. Coupled with the cessation or reduction of production in some mining areas due to conflicts, the quantity of rough entering the international market has sharply decreased. Industry insiders estimate that the total volume of jadeite rough flowing into the market has decreased by at least 30% to 40% compared to pre-pandemic levels.
“Over the past year, we have clearly felt that finding high-quality rough has become significantly more difficult, and prices at every public auction or private transaction have soared,” said Li Ming (pseudonym), a veteran jadeite rough trader with nearly two decades of experience in Ruili, Yunnan. “Especially those pieces that can reach the 'ice-kind' or 'glass-kind' level, they are now almost 'one-of-a-kind,' and prices doubling has become the norm.”
Demand Side: Investment and Collection Enthusiasm Undiminished
Despite the tight supply, global demand for high-quality jadeite remains robust. On one hand, with increasing global economic uncertainty, jadeite, as a scarce hard asset with cultural value, has increasingly highlighted its investment and collection attributes, attracting significant attention from high-net-worth individuals. On the other hand, in Asian markets represented by China, the deep-rooted traditional cultural affection and aesthetic demand for jadeite, coupled with consumption upgrading trends, have driven demand for high-end jadeite finished products.
Dr. Chen Huaqiang, a jewelry industry analyst, pointed out: “Under current global inflationary pressures, traditional precious metals and gemstones like gold and diamonds have experienced significant price fluctuations. In contrast, high-quality jadeite, due to its unique scarcity and non-renewable nature, demonstrates stronger potential for value preservation and appreciation. We anticipate that the compound annual growth rate for top-tier jadeite rough could maintain above 10%, or even higher, over the next five years.”
Market Outlook: Structural Price Increases to Persist
Looking ahead, the structural upward trend in the jadeite rough market is expected to continue. In the short term, fundamental changes in Myanmar's political situation and mining policies are unlikely, and the tight supply of rough will persist. In the long run, as high-quality veins gradually deplete, the scarcity of premium jadeite will become even more pronounced, and its value will continue to climb.
“For mid-to-low-end jadeite rough, due to a relatively larger market inventory and more substitutes, price fluctuations will be relatively stable, and may even see slight adjustments,” Li Ming added. “However, for top-tier 'ice-kind' and 'glass-kind' rough with collection and investment value, the logic behind their price increase is solid, and there is still significant room for appreciation in the future.”
Industry experts advise investors and collectors in the current market environment to pay more attention to the quality, transparency (种水), color, and integrity of the rough, to discern carefully, and to invest rationally, in order to mitigate potential risks and seize opportunities for value growth in scarce resources.
(All data and expert opinions in this article are based on market observations and reasonable inferences, for reference only, and do not constitute any investment advice.)