Industry Observation
In the first half of 2024, the global jade rough market once again focused on Myanmar. As the sole origin of over 90% of high-quality jadeite globally, Myanmar's policy changes and mining status directly impact the entire jade industry chain. From the Hpakant mining area to the Yangon Emigrant's Jade Auction, a game of scarcity and value is unfolding.
Tightening Mining Policies, Shrinking Supply
Since 2021, the Myanmar government has continuously strengthened its control over jade mining areas. According to the latest data from the Myanmar Ministry of Mining, as of May 2024, the number of approved mining licenses in major mining areas such as Hpakant and Maw Sit Sit in Kachin State has decreased by approximately 35% year-on-year. Large-scale mechanized mining projects, in particular, face stringent environmental assessments and community impact reviews, leading to slow approval of new mining blocks. Dr. U Min Maw, a senior researcher at the Mineral Resources Research Center of Yangon University, pointed out: “The government aims to standardize mining, reduce disorderly and illegal extraction, which is beneficial for resource conservation in the long run, but will undoubtedly exacerbate market supply tension in the short term.”
Data shows that Myanmar's jade rough exports in 2023 decreased by about 18% compared to 2022, and the downward trend continued in the first half of 2024, with an estimated annual decrease of over 20%. This contraction in supply has directly driven up the transaction prices of rough stones.
Hot Public Auctions, Record-High Prices for High-Quality Rough
The decrease in supply has not suppressed demand; instead, it has stimulated the market's pursuit of high-quality rough. At the 2024-1st Yangon Jade Public Auction held in May this year, although the total volume of rough stones exhibited was less than in previous years, the transaction volume reached a new high in nearly three years, totaling approximately 250 million US dollars. Among them, bidding for high-ice, imperial green, and other premium rough stones was exceptionally fierce. A 'Mona material' weighing 1.5 kilograms, with even color and excellent translucency, was ultimately acquired by a buyer from Guangdong, China, for a staggering 8.2 million Euros, setting a new auction record for rough stones of comparable size.
“The pursuit of scarce resources by the market is an eternal rule. The non-renewability of Myanmar jade, coupled with the increasing difficulty and cost of mining, all contribute to its rising value,” said Mr. Li Ming, Vice President of the Gems & Jewelry Trade Association of China and a senior jade appraiser, in an interview. “Especially those top-grade rough stones with investment and collection value, their prices are almost unaffected by short-term market fluctuations.”
Robust Chinese Market Demand Drives Industry Chain Upgrades
As the world's largest consumer market for jadeite, China's demand for Myanmar jade rough remains strong. Despite rising rough prices, domestic processing enterprises and retailers continue to actively procure to meet the growing consumer demand. This demand is also forcing the upgrading of China's jade processing and sales industry chain.
On one hand, more and more enterprises are focusing on refined evaluation and risk control of rough stones, introducing technological means such as spectral analysis and CT scans to improve the success rate of 'gambling on stones'. On the other hand, branding and premiumization have become industry development trends, emphasizing design creativity and cultural added value to enhance the overall competitiveness of products.
However, the market also faces challenges. High rough stone costs have put immense pressure on small and medium-sized enterprises, with some businesses turning to substitutes or exploring other types of jade. At the same time, illegal smuggling and counterfeit products remain chronic problems in the industry, requiring joint efforts from governments, industry associations, and consumers to maintain market order.
Looking ahead, the Myanmar jade rough market will continue to maintain its unique charm and high level of attention. Against the backdrop of increasingly scarce resources, how to achieve sustainable mining, standardized transactions, and balance market supply and demand will be crucial issues for all participants.