Myanmar Jadeite Rough Supply Remains Tight, High-End Material Prices Hit New Peaks, Market Structural Divergence Intensifies

Myanmar Jadeite Rough Supply Remains Tight, High-End Material Prices Hit New Peaks, Market Structural Divergence Intensifies

【Yangon/Kunming】 March 2024 witnessed another structural adjustment in the global jadeite rough market. According to the latest data obtained by our reporter from major mining areas in Myanmar and border trade ports in Yunnan, China, the overall supply of Myanmar jadeite rough continues to be tight due to a combination of geopolitical factors and stricter mining policies. Notably, prices for high-quality ice-jade and glass-jade roughs have seen significant increases, with some premium pieces even recording double-digit monthly growth. In contrast, prices for mid-to-low-end ordinary materials have remained relatively stable, further intensifying market divergence.

Supply Side: Dual Pressure from Geopolitics and Policy Tightening

For a long time, Myanmar, as the sole origin of over 90% of the world's jadeite rough, has seen its internal situation's fluctuations ripple through the global jadeite market. Since the beginning of 2024, the increased uncertainty in northern Myanmar's mining areas has severely disrupted mining operations, with some areas even experiencing temporary shutdowns. Concurrently, the Myanmar government's continuous adjustments to jadeite mining and export policies, aimed at strengthening resource control and enhancing added value, have indirectly led to a reduction in rough exports.

“We have observed a noticeable decrease in the quantity of high-quality rough entering the Chinese market since late last year. Although some traders procure through alternative channels, the overall supply is far less than in the same period in previous years,” said Mr. Li Mingde, Vice President of the Yunnan Gem and Jade Association and a senior jadeite appraiser, in an interview with our newspaper. “This sustained tightness in supply is the fundamental reason driving up prices for high-end jadeite rough.”

Demand Side: Investment in Premium Pieces Remains Strong, Mass Consumption Becomes More Rational

While supply dwindles, global demand for high-quality jadeite remains robust. Particularly in major consumer markets like China and Southeast Asia, top-tier jadeite such as ice-jade and glass-jade, which possess collection and investment value, have become a focal point for capital due to their scarcity. According to the latest report released by market analysis firm “Jade Think Tank,” the global transaction volume for high-quality jadeite grew by approximately 8% in 2023, and a similar growth trend is expected in 2024.

However, in contrast to the booming high-end market, the performance of mid-to-low-end jadeite rough has been relatively subdued. Influenced by global economic downturn pressures and more rational consumer purchasing power, ordinary consumers are increasingly prioritizing cost-effectiveness when choosing jadeite jewelry, and are more sensitive to rough prices.

“The market currently exhibits a clear polarization,” noted Mr. Wang Qiang, a senior trader at the Kunming Jadeite Trading Center. “On one hand, prices for top-tier materials are constantly breaking records, with buyers mostly being affluent collectors and institutional investors. On the other hand, trading of ordinary materials appears sluggish, with even slight pullbacks in some categories, reflecting the cautious attitude of the mass consumption market.”

Market Outlook: Structural Price Increases Likely to Persist, Risks and Opportunities Coexist

Looking ahead, industry experts generally agree that the tight supply of Myanmar jadeite rough is unlikely to fundamentally reverse in the short term. Geopolitical uncertainties, resource depletion, and the Myanmar government's strengthened resource control will continue to impact rough export volumes. Therefore, prices for high-quality jadeite rough still have room for further appreciation, and their investment value will continue to be highlighted.

However, for the mid-to-low-end jadeite market, the future trend is more challenging. Against a backdrop of relatively ample supply and rationalized demand, the likelihood of significant price increases is small, and there may even be some downward pressure. This requires businesses to adopt more refined procurement and sales strategies, focusing on product design and brand added value to adapt to market changes.

Mr. Li Mingde advised: “Investors should pay more attention to the quality, clarity, color, and craftsmanship of jadeite, rather than blindly chasing high prices. For ordinary consumers, choosing jadeite products that suit their needs and budget is a wise move. The entire industry also needs to adapt to these structural changes and explore new business models and market opportunities.”

Overall, the jadeite rough market in March presented a “tale of two cities.” The scarcity value of high-end premium materials continued to be recognized by the market, with prices steadily climbing; while mid-to-low-end materials faced more rational market scrutiny. This structural divergence indicates that the jadeite industry is entering a more mature and professional phase, demanding higher levels of insight and strategy from practitioners.