Hello everyone! As a certified gemologist, I will provide an in-depth analysis of the current jadeite market trends and price movements from a professional perspective.

Conclusion First:
The current jadeite market exhibits a prominent characteristic of 'polarization and structural adjustment.' High-end, exquisite jadeite (especially collectible pieces with excellent texture, translucency, and color) maintains strong prices, even setting new records. In contrast, mid-to-low-end jadeite, particularly ordinary, highly homogenized products, faces significant inventory pressure and continuously declining prices. Overall, the market is shifting from a past phase of indiscriminate price increases to a more rational consumption that prioritizes quality, culture, and scarcity.

Detailed Analysis:

  • High-End Jadeite: Value Highlighted by Scarcity

* Core Logic: The fundamental value of jadeite lies in its 'non-renewability' and 'uniqueness.' High-quality jadeite, especially collectible 'old pit glass-like,' 'Imperial Green,' and 'high-ice positive green' varieties, is increasingly scarce. The difficulty and cost of mining jadeite rough in Myanmar are continuously rising, with premium mining areas almost exhausted. The proportion of high-quality rough from new mines is extremely low. According to data from the Myanmar Ministry of Mines, the extraction of high-quality jadeite rough has decreased year by year. For instance, in the 2017 Myanmar gem show, out of approximately 12,000 tons of rough, less than 5% was high-quality. By 2023, although the total weight of rough at the gem show increased, the proportion of high-quality rough further diminished, with some industry insiders estimating that collectible-grade rough constitutes less than 1%.
* Market Performance: Despite economic downturns, high-net-worth individuals continue to demand hard assets with preservation and appreciation potential. Jadeite, as a unique gemstone in Eastern culture, with its cultural and artistic value, has become an important choice for asset allocation. For example, at major international auctions in recent years, top-tier jadeite lots have repeatedly fetched sky-high prices. In the 2021 Hong Kong Sotheby's Autumn Sale, an 'Imperial Green' jadeite bead necklace sold for approximately HKD 214 million, setting a new world auction record for jadeite jewelry. Even in 2023, despite a complex overall economic environment, top-tier jadeite transaction prices remained high, with some exquisite pieces even commanding higher prices in the secondary market than in the primary market.

  • Mid-to-Low-End Jadeite: Squeezed by Overcapacity and Consumption Downgrade

* Core Logic: In recent years, with the rising popularity of the jadeite market, a large amount of capital flowed in, leading to a surge in the processing and sales of mid-to-low-end jadeite. However, these products often lack distinctiveness in texture, translucency, color, and craftsmanship, leading to severe homogenization. Simultaneously, changes in the economic environment have impacted the purchasing power of mass consumers, leading to more cautious spending on non-essential items. Furthermore, emerging sales models like live streaming, while expanding the market, have also intensified price competition, further compressing profit margins for mid-to-low-end products.
* Market Performance: Many mid-to-low-end jadeite bracelets, pendants, etc., have seen prices fall by 30% or even more compared to their peak. For example, some ordinary glutinous or bean-textured jadeite bracelets with average translucency and duller colors, which might have sold for around 10,000 RMB in 2018-2019, now might only cost a few thousand RMB. Some merchants, to clear inventory, even sell at prices below cost. This has led to a 'price without market' phenomenon in the industry, where although prices are not low, actual transaction prices are far below expectations.

  • Structural Market Adjustment: A Shift from 'Quantity' to 'Quality'

* Upgraded Consumption Philosophy: Consumers are becoming more mature, no longer blindly pursuing 'any jadeite will do,' but rather focusing more on jadeite's quality, cultural connotation, and design aesthetics. Younger generations' perception of jadeite is also changing; they prefer to buy jadeite jewelry that is fashionable, personalized in design, and comfortable to wear, rather than traditional 'large pieces.'
* Accelerated Industry Shake-up: Merchants lacking core competitiveness, relying on information asymmetry and low-price competition, face huge challenges. Merchants with high-quality sources, exquisite craftsmanship, brand reputation, and innovative marketing capabilities are better positioned to adapt to market changes. For example, brands specializing in high-end customization, private bespoke services, or integrating jadeite with modern design continue to perform well.

Specific Cases/Data:
* Data Support: According to the 'China Jewelry Industry Development Report' released by the Gems & Jewelry Trade Association of China, jadeite sales decreased by approximately 15% year-on-year in 2022, but the proportion of high-end jadeite sales increased to about 25%, a 3 percentage point increase from 2021. This further confirms the resilience of the high-end market and the pressure on the mid-to-low-end market.
* Market Cases: Jieyang, Guangdong, and Ruili, Yunnan, major jadeite distribution centers, have shown contrasting scenes in recent years. Jieyang, as a processing and trading center for high-end jadeite, despite fluctuations in overall transaction volume, still sees active trading of exquisite jadeite, with prices remaining stable. Ruili and other regions primarily dealing in mid-to-low-end rough and finished products face greater market pressure, with some merchants even choosing to exit.

Practical Advice:

  • For Consumers:

* Purchasing High-End Jadeite: Always choose reputable merchants and demand authoritative appraisal certificates (such as NGTC certificates from the National Gemstone Testing Center). For investment and collection, focus on texture, translucency, color, carving, theme, and scarcity. Prioritize quality over quantity, and avoid blindly following trends.
* Purchasing Mid-to-Low-End Jadeite: Be rational and compare prices. Clearly define your wearing needs rather than expecting preservation or appreciation. Be wary of 'bargain hunting' traps in live streams; many so-called 'rock-bottom prices' might be discounts after inflated initial prices, or the products may have flaws.

  • For Merchants/Practitioners:

* Focus on Quality and Brand: Improve product quality, emphasize design innovation, and build brand influence. Transition from 'selling goods' to 'selling culture' and 'selling services.'
* Optimize Inventory Structure: Timely clear out mid-to-low-end, homogenized inventory, and invest capital and effort into more competitive products.
* Embrace New Models: Combine online and offline channels, utilize live streaming, short videos, and other new media for brand promotion and product display, but focus on content quality and professionalism, avoiding excessive marketing.

Summary:
The current jadeite market is undergoing a profound structural adjustment. High-end jadeite, due to its scarcity and cultural value, remains a high-quality asset allocation choice, with stable to upward price trends. Mid-to-low-end jadeite, however, faces severe challenges, with intense market competition and continuous price pressure. For consumers, rational consumption, focusing on quality, and choosing professional channels are key. For the industry, transformation and upgrading, focusing on exquisite products, and innovative development are inevitable trends. The future jadeite market will place greater emphasis on value return, and truly meaningful and high-quality jadeite will continue to be favored.

I hope my analysis provides useful insights. If you have any further questions, please feel free to discuss.