A few days ago, my old buddy Lao Wang, the one who sets up a stall with me in Ruili, called me and said he had a piece of rough jade and asked if it was a good time to sell. From his description, it was about the size of a palm, a greenish-white jade rough with some skin, and the texture was fairly fine. To be honest, the market for Hetian jade these past few years has been like a roller coaster—it's really hard to sum up in just a few words.

What’s the current situation in the Hetian jade market?

Let me tell you, if you ask me about recent changes in the Hetian jade market, the biggest impression is that the market is becoming increasingly polarized. What does that mean? It means that the good, especially the very good materials—like Xinjiang Hetian rough jade, particularly those with excellent appearance, smooth texture, and proper skin color—the prices are truly solid and even still rising. Last year, a client of mine, who has bought several pieces of jadeite from me, told me he saw a piece of first-grade white rough jade in Kashgar, about the length of a forearm, and asked if it was worth the price. When he told me the price, I immediately said, “Brother, if it’s really as good as you say, that price is basically reasonable, maybe even a bargain.” Think about it—these past few years with the economic downturn, many industries have struggled, but top-tier Hetian jade is like hard currency, its value preservation and appreciation ability are evident.

However, those ordinary mountain jade, Russian jade, Qinghai jade, and even the so-called “broad sense Hetian jade,” like Korean jade, have less favorable prices. At the end of last year, I was wandering around the market and saw some ordinary Qinghai jade bracelets that used to sell for three to four thousand yuan, now being sold for one or two thousand yuan. Would you call that a drop? Of course it is. So, if you ask me whether Hetian jade prices are rising or falling, I have to ask you, which kind of Hetian jade are you talking about? Saying prices are rising or falling in general is irresponsible.

Why is the polarization so significant?

I’ve stepped into this pit myself. When I first entered the trade, I thought everything was a treasure, and as long as it was Hetian jade, I rushed in. What happened? Good material was really scarce, and poor material was abundant. Nowadays, the market is very transparent, and everyone has a clearer understanding of what they hold. Previously, an ordinary piece of Russian jade, if packaged well, could fetch a decent price. Now, that’s no longer the case, as more knowledgeable people have emerged.


    • Resource scarcity: High-quality rough jade from Xinjiang Hetian, especially original, uncontaminated good material, is becoming increasingly rare. This is a non-renewable resource—once mined, it’s gone. You know the saying, scarcity creates value; this is an eternal truth.

    • Aesthetic upgrade: In the past, people mainly demanded whiteness. Now, besides whiteness, they also emphasize smoothness, fineness, skin color, and shape. The better the quality, the more sought after it is. Ordinary materials, no matter how cheap, fail to attract interest.

    • Market reshuffle: Over the past few years of the pandemic, many small workshops and small businesses couldn’t survive. Those holding inventory want to liquidate quickly. So you see many ordinary materials being sold off. But those with strength and vision are still stockpiling good materials because they know good items always sell.

Let me tell you, when dealing with Hetian jade now, insight is more important than capital. If you only have money but don’t understand the trade, you might end up buying a bunch of junk—looking like Hetian jade, but actually worthless. On the other hand, even if you don’t have much capital but have sharp insight, you can still find bargains in the market.

What about the future market? Here’s my view...

If you ask me, I think the future Hetian jade market will see even more pronounced polarization between premium and ordinary materials.


Top-tier, rare rough jade, especially those with artistic value and cultural significance, will continue to hold firm prices and may even rise steadily. This is not just about the price of the stone itself, but also a reflection of its value as a collectible and artwork. Think about it—a good piece of Hetian jade is not just a stone; it carries history and culture. Holding it in your hand, you feel that smoothness and weight that nothing else can compare to.


However, those with large output and average quality—mountain jade, Russian jade, Qinghai jade, and many so-called broad-sense Hetian jades flooding the market—I personally think their prices will continue to decline or remain at a relatively low level. Unless they have exceptional carving that adds artistic value, it’s hard for the material alone to see much improvement. Because these types of jade have many substitutes, and their production volume is large, they are not scarce, so price increases are difficult.

So, I believe in the next few years, the Hetian jade market will become more rational. Blind speculation and hype will become increasingly difficult. Only those who truly understand the trade and jade will be able to stand firm in this market.

Thinking of buying Hetian jade now? Lao Zhou gives you some practical advice

If you’re thinking about buying Hetian jade recently, my advice is:



    • Clarify your purpose: Are you looking to collect for value preservation and appreciation, or do you want to wear and play with it? Different purposes require different materials and budgets. If you just want to wear it, ordinary Russian or Qinghai jade is fine, but don’t expect much price appreciation. If you want to collect, you should lean towards high-quality rough jade from Xinjiang Hetian, even if it’s more expensive, because it has stronger value preservation.

    • Look more, buy less: This is an old saying but very important. Visit the market often, see the actual pieces, and talk to knowledgeable people. Don’t rush to buy, especially those pieces that make your heart race but have a suspiciously “beautiful” price. I tell you, nine times out of ten, there’s a trap. Remember this: “Cheap goods are not good goods; good goods are not cheap.” This is a truth in the jade trade.

    • Find the right people: If you’re a beginner and don’t have knowledgeable friends around, find a reliable dealer. Reliable doesn’t mean a big shop or flashy ads, but someone honest, willing to tell you the truth and teach you. Those who only brag about how good their goods are and how cheap their prices are—just block them.

    • Start from entry-level: Don’t jump straight to buying pieces worth hundreds of thousands or millions. Start with small items costing a few thousand yuan, like small carvings or bracelets. Practice, accumulate experience, and gradually improve your eye. This process is essential; no one is born knowing jade.

    • Don’t blindly trust certificates: Certificates are supplementary, not omnipotent. Especially those that only say “Hetian jade” on the certificate—they can’t distinguish origin or quality grade. Good certificates specify origin and specific category. But more importantly, you need to learn to judge the quality yourself.


Honestly, it’s getting harder to find bargains in the Hetian jade market now. But opportunities still exist. The key is whether you have the insight and patience. If you really want to succeed in this trade, you have to put in the effort to learn and be willing to spend time. Don’t always expect to get rich overnight—that basically doesn’t exist in the jade trade.